Formula 1's most hyped rookie since Max Verstappen is "trying to find the light at the end of the tunnel" after a bruising run of results in his first campaign.
Kimi Antonelli earned his first podium at the Canadian Grand Prix just last month, but that was his only score in the last six races.
That run has derailed what was a decent start to life in F1. He trailed Mercedes team-mate George Russell through his opening weekends, not making the kind of immediate splash that Verstappen was able to in his rookie year.
But that's a ridiculously high bar to be aiming for and Antonelli had made a genuinely solid start, banking five top-six finishes in the first six races - as well as a landmark sprint pole in Miami that suggested even more was to come.
The European season promised to be the start of Antonelli cracking on and showcasing the potential that made him Mercedes' Plan A to replace Lewis Hamilton when he was only 17-years-old and hadn't even raced in Formula 2 yet.
What's gone wrong
Any momentum Antonelli took from his Miami high was brought to a screeching halt by a nightmare first triple-header in F1.
He was knocked out in Q2 at Imola and retired with a throttle problem while trying to recover on Sunday, then crashed in qualifying in Monaco and finished the race three laps down. Then at Barcelona he was running seventh (35 seconds behind Russell) until an oil pressure issue forced his retirement.
The Canadian GP weekend was a glorious anomaly - fourth in qualifying and third in the grand prix - but the following double-header was another disaster.
He completed just 23 racing laps across the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone races with two incidents - one completely his fault with Verstappen (Red Bull Ring), and the other totally out of his control with Isack Hadjar (Silverstone).
That left him with just 15 points from six races - a worse record than leading midfielders Nico Hulkenberg, Alex Albon, Hadjar and Fernando Alonso.
It was therefore no surprise that, off the back of being wiped out of the British GP by Hadjar while in 15th, Antonelli struggled to see the bright side.
"First of all I don't know what to say. It seems like everything is going wrong at the moment and it's hard to find some positives," Antonelli said.
"I'm not super happy, to be honest. Too many zeros scored.
"After Canada, I've been trying [but] I've been struggling to find some positives.
"It feels like nothing is really working on our way and just need to focus and reset and try to find again the light at the end of the tunnel, because definitely I'm not going through a nice moment."
Obviously a driver is always going to be their most negative right after being wiped out of a race, but even after Antonelli's intended "reset" in the days after Silverstone, it's hard to imagine he'll be feeling too positive about the second quarter of his rookie year.
How bad has it really been?
Antonelli previously admitted he's been limited in his rookie F1 season by "overcorrecting" almost ever since crashing just minutes into his FP1 debut at Monza last year.
He said he's been too tense and cautious at times, and it's showing in his results. By his own admission, he's often started weekends too slowly and then been overreaching to catch up come qualifying, as he did in Monaco.
Russell has outqualified him 12-2 across grand prix and sprint qualifying sessions, with an average margin over Antonelli of 0.310s.
Meanwhile rookies such as Ollie Bearman and Gabriel Bortoleto are qualifying on average within a tenth of their more experienced team-mates Esteban Ocon and Nico Hulkenberg.
But Antonelli's three-tenth deficit is by no means an unacceptable gap for a rookie driver, especially when you consider Russell can make a solid case for being one of F1 2025's top-three performers.
Plus, Bearman and Bortoleto are somewhat flattered by Ocon and Hulkenberg's patchy one-lap speed while adjusting to new teams.
Russell has well over twice the points as Antonelli - 147 versus 63 - and has five podiums, including one race win to Antonelli's sole third-place finish on a weekend where Mercedes has the fastest car.
Antonelli has contributed 30% of Mercedes' points this year, so whichever way you slice it, Antonelli hasn't quite given Russell the hurry-up in the way some were expecting pre-season.
But that doesn’t mean there isn't more to come. The flashes of speed have been there. Antonelli gave Russell a proper headache in Miami and only scruffy execution denied him the chance to convert superior one lap speed into intra-team victories the races.
'Back to the baseline'
Like Miami, the next round at Spa is a sprint event - so there's every reason to think it would be the perfect place for Antonelli to bounce back.
It's the kind of old-school circuit Antonelli thrived on during his jnior career, he has F1 experience there as part of his Testing of Previous Cars programme, and he dazzled in the wet there in F2 last year - including a sensational move on Franco Colapinto into Eau Rouge/Raidillon.
Bold, brave, and brilliant 🙌
— Formula 2 (@Formula2) December 27, 2024
Kimi Antonelli's Spa send secured the Dallara Award for Best Overtaking Manoeuvre!#F2 #RoadToF1 pic.twitter.com/Tt90Yv2g17
There's no need for Antonelli to recreate that level of magic, but simply return to a consistent "baseline", to quote Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff.
"It's a rough run since Montreal for us, two races that were really sub-par, and everybody feels that way in the team and for Kimi also," Wolff said. "As a team and for Kimi, we need to go back to a baseline. He's a great driver, there's a reason why we took him."
But is Antonelli trying too hard to show that potential?
"I'm not sure he's trying too hard," Wolff replied.
"He wants to do well. And obviously there's a tonne of information that's coming down on him, then his way of trying to extract the best from the car and I think saying, 'OK, I know I can drive. What is it I need to do for that to come back?'
"And maybe the whole word for us as a team and for the drivers is 'simplification'. We are overthinking."
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